01/02/2024

Rival Narratives Will Battle for Supremacy in 2024

These are the trends that will shape the coming year

It has been more than 60 years since Thomas Kuhn first coined the term "paradigm shift." Yet the process the American historian described, where accumulating contradictions in and violations of old theories lead to them being painfully overthrown, remains relevant today.

As 2024 gets underway, the consequences of an inflationary overshoot, heightening trade conflict and war pose a challenge to established ways of thinking about the world. That leaves fields from central banking to technology, industrial policy and energy in an uncomfortable state of flux. The lessons their practitioners draw in the coming 12 months will influence economies, companies and markets for years to come.

Kuhn's thinking, laid out in the seminal "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions," focused on the messy, confrontational process by which scientific theory changes to accommodate disquieting discoveries. While the concept of paradigm shifts has been widely applied, to the point of misuse, in other fields, it seems appropriate when considering the many uncertainties in confronting today's changed world.

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